Bitcoin (BTC) wrapped up October below the critical resistance level of $70,000 after missing the opportunity to reach a new all-time high last week. Altcoins also faced significant selling pressure, as crypto traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the upcoming US election results.
On Thursday, November 7, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision, with CME data indicating a 99.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut. Concurrently, US voting will commence on November 5, with results anticipated around November 6, which are likely to have ripple effects across both the financial and cryptocurrency markets.
In recent weeks, the cryptocurrency market has been highly reactive to US political developments while remaining driven by broader macroeconomic factors. Analysts suggest that the market’s trajectory may closely align with that of the S&P 500 in the near future.
The Kobeissi Letter highlights historical data indicating that when the incumbent party—in this case, the Democrats—appears likely to lose, the S&P 500 typically sees softer returns leading up to the election. Notably, the S&P 500 has surged by 40% over the past year, marking one of its strongest rallies on record, which may indicate market sentiment is tilting toward a Republican victory.
However, the report also warns that when the incumbent party loses, market volatility tends to increase both before and after the election. Throughout 2024, the volatility index (VIX) has remained elevated, rising 65% year-to-date, despite the stock market hitting new highs. Consequently, crypto traders and the broader cryptocurrency market may experience similar fluctuations as the US elections approach.
As the crypto market prepares for potential volatility this week due to the FOMC meeting and the elections, analysts are optimistic about the sustainability of the current rally. Historically, significant bull runs have often followed election periods, and Bitcoin’s price is poised for its next upward movement. If Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum, there is potential for it to reach the $100,000 mark by year-end. Should BTC replicate patterns from the last two cycles, a parabolic rally could even push prices to $200,000 and beyond.
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