Bitcoin is on the verge of marking its longest-ever period in a sideways market range since its April halving, leaving bulls disheartened and hoping for a rally in the final quarter of the year. According to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju, “285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving. If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history.”
Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years, reduce block rewards for miners and have historically been associated with significant bull rallies. Typically, prices tend to rise as the supply of new Bitcoin decreases, provided that demand remains constant or increases. Following the April 14 halving, Bitcoin surged above $73,000, leading some analysts to target a price of $160,000 by year-end. However, since then, prices have fluctuated primarily within the $59,000 to $65,000 range, approaching a record for sideways action last seen in 2016.
The stagnant price action of Bitcoin, characterized by continued accumulation by smaller investors, can be attributed to various factors, including uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections and a renewed increase in U.S. Treasury yields. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, noted in a Telegram message to CoinDesk, “The higher bond yield move and SPX at record highs are helping to push USD higher, but it is coming at the expense of crypto, where BTC is back to hovering around the 60k level again.”
Additionally, the defunct Mt. Gox exchange’s recent announcement of extending its repayment deadline to October 2025 may temporarily alleviate supply pressures. However, Fan suggested that Bitcoin is likely to remain in a holding pattern as the election approaches.
With the political landscape influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory, Republican candidate Donald Trump is viewed as more crypto-friendly, linked to the new decentralized finance project World Liberty Finance. In contrast, the Democratic Party is perceived as less favorable toward cryptocurrencies. A Republican victory could potentially fuel an upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.
Markets often experience sideways phases where traders reassess their positions, leading to a balance between buying and selling pressures. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole emphasized that Bitcoin would need to break and sustain above the $69,000 level to be considered a bullish breakout from the current range. Such a breakout would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend from the lows of October 2023, shifting focus to the $100,000 mark anticipated by options traders.
The current sideways movement could indicate periods of accumulation, where investors gradually buy without significantly impacting prices, or distribution, where they sell off holdings in a controlled manner. Typically, these conditions set the stage for increased volatility.
As Bitcoin transitions from a seasonally bearish August and September—when significant market movements are rare—into a historically bullish October, a CoinDesk analysis reveals that most gains in October occur in the latter half of the month, usually after October 16.
Nonetheless, market strains persist. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently charged multiple market-making and trading firms, igniting discussions about potential challenges for the crypto market in the lead-up to the November elections.
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