Bitcoin (BTC) experienced minimal fluctuations as excitement surrounding a recent HBO documentary faded, leaving traders cautious ahead of key U.S. economic reports expected later this week. Over the past 24 hours, BTC dropped by just 0.4%, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index saw a 0.61% decline. In contrast, Ether (ETH) gained 0.3%, while other major cryptocurrencies like BNB Chain’s (BNB), Solana‘s (SOL), and XRP (XRP) remained stable. Notably, Sui Network’s (SUI) token fell 7%, following a prior surge of over 20% since late September.
The documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery” ignited significant interest and speculation regarding the elusive identity of Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Theories surrounding Nakamoto’s identity often lead to market volatility, but past investigations have yielded no definitive answers. HBO’s recent claims that Bitcoin developer Peter Todd could be Nakamoto were met with skepticism. Todd himself denied these assertions in an interview with CoinDesk, and the Bitcoin community on social media platform X largely dismissed HBO’s findings.
In betting markets, over $44.3 million was wagered on Polymarket regarding Nakamoto’s identity, with notable volume directed towards contenders Len Sassaman and Adam Back. Despite the documentary hype, the market’s prediction on whether Satoshi’s identity will be confirmed this year remained stable. The probability of it not being proven in 2024 briefly dipped but quickly rebounded to 95.5%.
In related financial news, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw significant outflows, with over $18 million withdrawn on Monday, according to SoSoValue data. Fidelity’s FBTC fund alone reported losses exceeding $48 million, while ETH ETFs experienced over $8 million in withdrawals.
Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a potential Chinese stimulus package waned, leading to declines in Chinese stock markets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4%.
As traders await a Federal Reserve meeting, they anticipate insights from the release of FOMC minutes and economic indicators tracking growth, which typically influence market prices. Polymarket participants are forecasting a 25 basis point rate cut for November, with the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut dropping to 9%, down from 46% at the end of September.
QCP Capital analysts noted that as the Chinese market rally diminishes, capital may flow back into cryptocurrencies, highlighting their maturation as an alternative risk asset. They cautioned of potential short-term risks for equities, attributed to the upcoming earnings season and inflation data, while maintaining a medium-term optimistic outlook, driven by forthcoming election developments.
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