Assets tied to the probability of Donald Trump winning the upcoming elections have experienced heightened volatility following an attempted assassination on the former president over the weekend.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied 7% to reach $62,500, driven by increased betting odds favoring Trump’s election victory, now standing at 70% on platforms like Polymarket. The cryptocurrency’s surge has crossed the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating positive momentum for traders tracking long-term trends, according to CoinDesk data. Concurrently, Trump-themed Polifi tokens, blending politics with finance, have also seen significant gains.
Trump’s recent pro-crypto stance, aimed at winning support from the cryptocurrency community seeking favorable regulatory policies, has further cemented bitcoin and the broader crypto market as indicators of his electoral prospects. Trump is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27, underscoring his alignment with the industry.
Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, commented on the market reaction: “The attempted Trump assassination over the weekend was the major news event. It’s been absolutely extraordinary. This incident has increased the likelihood of a Trump presidency. Given Trump’s supportive stance on crypto, this development has bolstered demand for cryptocurrencies.”
In response to the potential implications of a Trump victory, the Chinese yuan (CNY) and Mexican peso (MXN) have weakened against the U.S. dollar amid concerns of escalated trade tensions and strained bilateral relations respectively. Meanwhile, futures linked to the 10-year Treasury note have declined, suggesting expectations of higher yields as markets anticipate increased government spending, tax cuts, and expanded budget deficits under a Trump administration.
Looking ahead, investment banks foresee a potential steepening of the yield curve with a Trump victory, historically correlating with broader risk aversion in financial markets. Despite Asian stocks dipping on disappointing economic data from China, futures tied to the S&P 500 indicated a positive opening on Monday. The dollar index, reflecting the dollar’s strength against major global currencies, traded marginally higher at 104.19, as reported by TradingView.
The ongoing market dynamics underscore the intricate interplay between political events, economic forecasts, and cryptocurrency trends in shaping investor sentiment and market movements globally.
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