The fascination of the blockchain field is that there can always be very small projects that are not noticed at first, that are not appreciated by others, and projects that are looked down upon suddenly become very large, and become giants in a few months , and developed countless follow-up projects, forming an ecosystem in this direction. That’s why there are countless people who have followed suit. And looking at Bitcoin, uniswap, and ordinals now, they are not made by companies backed by huge venture capital investments. Any successful project is a process from a dog to a swan. It was very ugly when it was first born, and no one thought it would rise and be very valuable. This is what makes the crypto world fascinating. If a world is carved up by those with vested interests, then the world will be lifeless.
Airdrop has now become the mode that can most activate user surge. I even have a judgment that the evolution of the token release paradigm is the evolution direction of the blockchain. From the earliest hardware mining, then to 1C0, and then to DeFi liquidity mining, the next bull market may be airdrops. Of course, the airdrop in the next bull market will be different from the previous airdrop of stragglers. There may be a standard version. Large blockchain networks have their own standard version. The main purpose is of course to resist witches. The reliable and available DID is the next A necessary prerequisite for a bull market standard airdrop model.
The previous blockchain network did not build a DID system, such as Ethereum, the ENS domain name itself can be transferred and cannot be used for decentralized identity at all, and a future trend is that large blockchain networks will build a DID system. I still emphasize that from the earliest hardware mining (stimulating the skyrocketing of Bitcoin) to ICO (stimulating the prosperity of Ethereum), and then to liquidity mining (stimulating the rise of DEX), the release of tokens in the next bull market will evolve into The airdrop paradigm, and the premise of forming this trend is the formation of a truly reliable large-scale DID system. In the future, new large-scale blockchain networks may be designed into the DID system from the beginning, and even bind the consensus mechanism and DID, which may make the future perfect.
My ideal unified domain name decentralized identity system, all domain names with different suffixes and different prefixes can transfer money and communicate with each other, instead of the current ENS domain name to ENS domain name, this is very similar to uniswap creating a transaction pool, it is uniswap that started the decentralization The first shot of financialization. Non-financial applications will be the top stream of the next bull market explosion. Decentralized identity and account abstraction are not isolated from each other, but are naturally integrated. All domain names with different suffixes and different prefixes can become the user names of Web3 social or games in the future. There will be countless domain name applications with different suffixes in the future, not just one or a few, and domain name suffixes are not necessarily necessary Representing a certain public chain, you can see this trend when Boring Ape also issues a domain name. In the future, it will be very common for a certain DAO to issue a domain name, and a certain game platform to issue a domain name. In the future, it should be normal for the ENS domain name to be transferred to the Boring Ape domain name. In a game, it is not uncommon for people with ENS domain names and people with Boring Ape domain names to compete.
Boring Ape is about to issue a domain name, but unfortunately the proposal was not approved. Boring Ape is an IP, and the number of NFTs is too small, so they have to issue domain names, which can expand the number of users infinitely. In addition, a domain name with NFT is a perfect match in itself. I think there will be countless domain name suffixes in the future. The meaning of a certain domain name suffix is not necessarily a certain chain, but a certain DAO, a certain community. This is a change in the domain name application paradigm, rather than being concentrated in one or a very few domain name applications , which is an inevitable trend of the natural evolution of the market. Soul-bound (currently only bound to ENS domain name + NEW free domain name) UNIDID will provide identity identification for web3 user names (they will be domain names with different suffixes) and PFP avatars for all decentralized social and decentralized games in the future , is the unified decentralized identity of the whole chain. The unification of domain names is just needed and inevitable.
At present, the most successful model in the currency circle, whether it is decentralized or centralized, is the platform-merchant-user model, such as Ethereum, Smart Chain (Bitcoin is not yet), or Binance, Coinbase, etc. Exchanges, both types have a characteristic, that is, there must be merchants on them, and then users. The decentralized applications on Ethereum are merchants, not to mention various CEX exchanges. Those tokens are Business operated. As a platform, whether it is on Ethereum or Binance, they are the most powerful. They are all similar to Taobao, Taobao is a platform, there are merchants on the platform, and then there are users. So is Pinduoduo, and so is Didi Taxi. They are all platform economic models. It’s just that the charging models are different. Some do not charge merchants’ fees, while other alternative fees are essentially fees. This is like Ethereum and Binance, which actually charge fees. Only in this way can a stable cash flow system be formed. Others follow the trend, and even the king-level projects cannot form a stable cash flow. It even goes to zero during the bull-bear transition cycle.
The valuation of the largest decentralized social network in the future will basically have a market value similar to that of the No. 1 cryptocurrency, and even exceed the market value of the No. 1 cryptocurrency in a certain period of time, just like the capital chasing AI this year . Because capital has a full perspective around the world, it will not only focus on cryptocurrencies, and capital is always chasing the latest, the latest and strongest fields, not necessarily the field of cryptocurrencies.
Decentralized social networking itself does not have to be related to cryptocurrencies, it can be unrelated or related. In other words, decentralized social networking and cryptocurrency should be two different categories of things. There is a trend now, that is, the mutual “integration” of the most promising frontier fields, and super giants are likely to erupt. Such as AI, such as decentralized social networking, such as nuclear power, such as brain-computer interface.
Paradigm’s in-depth incubation of Uniswap became famous in the first battle. Now, Paradigm is ushering in a paradigm shift again. It no longer only focuses on cryptocurrency/Web3. Their official website has recently quietly revised the homepage of the website and changed it to “Paradigm is a research-oriented technology investment company.” , and deleted expressions related to cryptocurrencies/Web3 such as “We believe cryptocurrencies will define the next few decades.”
It can be said that in the most promising fields of cross-border integration, new super giants may emerge in the future, and their future market value may be more than ten times the market value of the largest project we have seen today. Both AI and decentralized social networking may have a market value greater than today’s Apple and today’s Bitcoin.
The valuation of the largest decentralized social network in the future can basically be similar to the market value of the number one cryptocurrency, and even exceed the market value of the number one cryptocurrency in a certain period of time, just like the capital chasing AI this year. Because capital has a full perspective around the world, it will not only focus on cryptocurrencies, and capital always pursues the latest, the latest and strongest, not necessarily in the field of cryptocurrencies, and capital will be transferred to AI if it makes great progress. On the strongest AI project, the decentralized social network will make great progress in the future (the sign is that it will continue to have more than one million monthly active users), and the world’s full-view capital will be transferred to the decentralized social field, so the largest in this field may not be Less than the market cap of Bitcoin.
In the 17-year bull market, in conjunction with the halving of Bitcoin is the Ethereum ICO, and countless capitals have gathered in the blockchain field. In the 21-year bull market, Ethereum DeFi is matched with the halving of Bitcoin, and a large amount of capital has entered the blockchain field. So what about the next bull market? Under the concept of Bitcoin halving, on the one hand, Ethereum’s innovative technologies will stimulate the number of new users, such as account abstraction, decentralized identity, L2, etc., which are simpler, faster and cheaper for new users (Because the complexity of operations now prevents a large number of ordinary people from entering the encryption field), on the other hand, there may be large capital inflows brought about by Bitcoin network innovation (compared to meme hype now), such as Bitcoin NFT, or other. The Bitcoin network is most suitable for asset storage and large-scale asset storage, because it is more decentralized and safer. Asset transfer and identity mapping between Ethereum and Bitcoin will also become a rigid demand.
The Ordinals protocol was officially launched on December 14, 2022. The Ordinals protocol does not require any centralized or trusted parties to participate, nor does it need to rely on any Layer 2 or side chain solutions. It fully follows the rules and security of the Bitcoin network itself. BTC NFTs, which are especially suitable for storing large assets, are the most suitable. Therefore, BTC NFT is very likely to have a project with a large price.
Analogous to the situation of Bitcoin in the previous two bull markets, Ethereum may have a similar situation in the next bull market, that is, it may lose its dominance in the blockchain field (note that it is not in market value, but is adopted by more people) .
Cross-border integration is the development direction of blockchain in the future. Blockchain projects with cross-border integration will be prosperous, and the degree of prosperity will even exceed that of established blockchains.
I have been emphasizing in the past two days that capital is from the perspective of the whole world, and will not only focus on the cryptocurrency field. With the rise of artificial intelligence, super-large capital will naturally transfer to a newer direction. There are still many emerging fields in the future, such as decentralized social networking, brain-computer interface, nuclear power applications, aerospace technology and so on. And recently, artificial intelligence has captured the attention of capital.
Cross-border integration, which may be the fusion of decentralized social networking and cryptocurrency, or the combination of artificial intelligence and blockchain, or even the combination of brain-computer interface and blockchain, may replace the original Ethereum and capture New dominance in the future blockchain field. The most likely is the combination of decentralized social networking and blockchain, as well as the combination of artificial intelligence and blockchain. A possible achievement of cross-border integration is to open up the gap between different blockchains with an “alternative paradigm”. Instead of being limited to the original blockchain to solve the problem of asset cross-chain and identity cross-chain of different blockchains.
Therefore, the next one of Bitcoin is Ethereum, and the next one of Ethereum may not be a pure blockchain project as we think, it is more likely to be a cross-border integration project, and the next one will have more users and activity , higher capital mobility, this is the indicator. The market value started to be small just because it is just beginning and needs to grow. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been developed for many years.
In addition to the inevitable growth of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the super dark horse that can rival the cross-border integration of blockchain projects, the next bull market, is likely to be uniswap. Uniswap has the potential to become an encryption behemoth like Binance, and it is normal logic for a Dapp to earn more than the Ethereum public chain. This is actually a battle between DEX and CEX. DEX is like CEX at the beginning, and the security of personal addresses is now in the first place (the wallet is stolen, the private key is lost, etc., and more perfect solutions are needed), and relevant foundations are needed. The facilities are complete.
The current mainstream four decentralized social protocols: Nostr, ActivityPub, Farcaster, Lens Protocol. I am most optimistic about Nostr. The design of farcaster is complicated, and there is an extra layer of ID, and the current real users are not the real bottom-level “deep users”. It can become the future Facebook, the future WeChat. There is no innovation in the lens, and it is just a gust of wind to flick the funds to engage in socialFi.
Web3 social networking will develop from the bottom up. This is different from the DeFi we see today. DeFi projects are driven by large pledged capital. The real so-called community drive is actually driven by large capital, even without VC holdings. In the financial field, there are big capitals who can call the wind and rain. The centralized social network is called by the big guys, and the decentralized social network needs to be bottom-up. That’s why the founder of Twitter pushed the decentralized social network.
The following passage comes from Matti abroad:
Identity first, apps second, no need to be locked into one platform to gain identity. Our blockchain (mainly ETH) addresses are slowly becoming our user profiles. This is how the user’s interaction with the web will slowly reverse, identity (address) will become primary, and application will become secondary. The web will become a native social network, and users will not have to rely on closed social media platforms to facilitate connections with other users. A token-enabled cluster is one way to define a community. With the proliferation of non-fungible verifiable identifiers (also known as soul bindings), we could be entering a Cambrian explosion of hashtags enabling social activity. This means that encrypted “Web 3 social” will develop from the bottom up.
The essence of all technologies is to gather energy and information through communication. In fact, the essence of art is communication. Art is easier to spread than pure symbols. The memes we know are all in the form of pictures, not abstract symbols, and the music on them is easier to resonate and spread.
So meme is essentially the same as technology. Can’t be underestimated.
Art that cannot be communicated is not art.
This is my judgment on art, don’t say how beautiful a painting is, that’s ignorance. What cannot be disseminated cannot be called art. Art itself needs to resonate, and the more people resonate, the better. From low art to high art, in fact, almost all so-called high art starts from low art.
Artists who are good at grasping the trend of the times may have influence for hundreds or even thousands of years, such as Wu Daozi, Xu Wei, Van Gogh, Picasso, and Van Gogh was actually his descendant who carried out extensive dissemination for him .
And the artists who are most likely to influence the future today are definitely not what we learned in the books in the classroom. Whether it is abstract art or freehand brushwork, it is impossible to use these to create things that will affect the future. What will affect the future is most likely to appear in the field of blockchain, or art in the field of artificial intelligence. Such as beeple, a painting can sell for more than 60 million US dollars. No matter what we do, I am most afraid of being limited in vision, always thinking that what is in the past is the best, and what can be left in history is to keep pace with the times at that time.
If the whole world is a zero-sum game, it will be the same now as it was 10,000 years ago. The characteristic of human beings is that they can create “new” things. If new things have the function of gathering energy and information, then it is evolution. The overall wealth of the world is new, not zero-sum.
Bitcoin may not be the biggest in the future. Before Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin, newer cross-border integration encryption projects will emerge.
