In a bold projection, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo anticipates that Bitcoin will eclipse the market capitalization of gold, spurred by the completion of ETF deployment.
Woo’s forecast hinges on the recent introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, which he believes will propel BTC’s price to staggering heights. He envisions targets of $91,000 during bear market troughs and an astronomical $650,000 at bull market peaks, contingent upon full capital deployment as per asset manager recommendations.
However, amid the fervor surrounding these ambitious price predictions, Woo tempers expectations, cautioning that achieving these targets may be protracted due to the gradual nature of capital deployment. To support his prognosis, he delineates six key points, offering what he terms “back of the envelope calculations.”
Central to Woo’s forecast is the assumption that the $100 trillion managed by asset managers typically includes a 2% allocation recommendation for Bitcoin. This translates to a potential allocation of approximately $2 trillion into BTC, a figure he anticipates may escalate over time.
Furthermore, Woo estimates that Bitcoin currently commands $561,159,959 of investment, citing on-chain data. Factoring in an inflow of $2 trillion, he projects this figure to surge to over $2.56 trillion.
Employing the MVRV ratio to gauge market capitalization versus invested capital—historically 5x during bull market peaks and 0.7x at bear market bottoms—Woo extrapolates potential market capitalizations of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion, respectively. This corresponds to BTC prices of $650,000 and $91,000 in bullish and bearish scenarios, respectively.
Anticipating Bitcoin’s ascent to surpass gold’s capitalization, Woo underscores the historical precedent set by gold’s 12-year bull run following the approval of its ETF.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $64,524, marking a modest 0.49% increase in the last 24 hours. Bloomberg notes Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market, reaching a three-year high amidst robust demand for U.S. exchange-traded funds holding the premier digital asset, coupled with a challenging landscape for smaller tokens.
CoinMarketCap data reveals Bitcoin’s dominance accounting for approximately 55% of the $2.4 trillion cryptocurrency market as of the previous week’s close, a level not witnessed since April 2021.
